Published on February 5, 2026, by Moody’s Investors Service
Singapore, February 05, 2026 — Moody’s Ratings (Moody’s) has today changed the outlook on the Government of Indonesia’s ratings (“Indonesia”) to negative from stable and affirmed the local and foreign currency long-term issuer ratings at Baa2.
One of the rationales:
The establishment of a new sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, has also raised uncertainties regarding its financing, governance, and investment priorities. With authority over State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) assets exceeding US$900bn (around 60% of 2025 nominal GDP), and an ambitious agenda that includes rationalizing existing SOEs, improving SOE returns, and investing in priority sectors, insufficient policy coordination and cohesiveness around Danantara’s mandate raise risks to policy credibility and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign. For example, Danantara’s authority over SOE dividend policies could place pressure on SOE financial health, as dividend payouts are a key funding source. SOE banks have already increased dividends in 2025. While Danantara remains in the early stages of development and the Government has established legal and institutional frameworks for Danantara through multiple legislative instruments, outstanding questions around investment prioritization, risk management, and regulatory relationships remain – despite early signs of some efficiency improvements. Notwithstanding these risks, our baseline assumption is that further institutional development will bring greater clarity around Danantara’s governance and operations.